Safest Caribbean Islands During Hurricane Season: What 175 Years of NOAA Data Actually Shows

By the Pixie Vacations advisor team — Caribbean specialists who have booked and personally traveled the islands for 20+ years. Analysis computed by CaribbeanMag from NOAA’s public hurricane database.

Last updated: August 2026 Data vintage: NOAA HURDAT2 Atlantic, complete through the 2025 season

The safest Caribbean islands during hurricane season are Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao and Trinidad — the four destinations that sit outside the Atlantic hurricane belt. Our analysis of every Atlantic storm since 1851 in NOAA’s HURDAT2 database shows Curaçao has not taken a direct hurricane hit since 1892, and Trinidad since 1933.

Most “hurricane season” travel advice is vague — “the southern islands are safer,” “avoid September.” We wanted numbers. So we took NOAA’s HURDAT2 dataset, which logs the track of every Atlantic tropical cyclone from 1851 through the 2025 season, and computed how often a hurricane has actually passed directly over 30 Caribbean destinations. The result is the island-by-island risk picture below, and a sortable table you can order however you plan trips.

Which Caribbean islands are safest during hurricane season?

The safest Caribbean islands during hurricane season are the ones physically outside the hurricane belt — the arc most Atlantic storms follow as they track west and then curve north. Ranked by how often a hurricane has passed directly over them since 1851, the four safest destinations are Curaçao, Trinidad, Aruba and Bonaire. All four sit along South America’s northern rim, below the latitude where the vast majority of hurricanes travel.

We sorted all 30 destinations into three risk tiers based on their direct-hit rate per decade (both across the full 1851–2025 record and for the modern 1975–2025 era). Here is the short version; the full sortable table follows.

Outside the belt — lowest risk

Curaçao, Trinidad, Aruba, Bonaire. A direct hurricane is a once-in-35-to-58-years event here. These are the go-to picks for travelers who want a Caribbean beach in August, September or October with the lowest realistic storm exposure.

Southern edge — low, but not zero

St. Vincent, Barbados, Puerto Plata (northern Dominican Republic), Grenada, St. Lucia. Roughly one direct hit every 18–25 years. Grenada’s Ivan (2004) and Beryl (2024) are the reminders that “edge” is not “immune.”

Inside the belt — highest risk

The Leeward and Virgin Islands, the Bahamas, Jamaica, Punta Cana, Puerto Rico, Turks & Caicos, and the western-Caribbean resort zones (Cancún, Cozumel, Grand Cayman, Belize, Roatán). One direct hit every 6–15 years, and this tier absorbed the catastrophic 2017 storms (Irma, Maria).

Caribbean hurricane risk by island: the sortable table

Click any column heading to sort (click again to reverse). Rows load safest-first. “Direct/decade” is direct hurricane hits within ~40 nautical miles, per decade. “Since 1975” isolates the modern, well-observed era.

*Bermuda is a North Atlantic island, not Caribbean — included for scale as the most-hit destination in the dataset. All figures computed by CaribbeanMag from NOAA HURDAT2 (1851–2025).

The four islands outside the hurricane belt

Curaçao

3 direct hits in 175 years and none since an unnamed 1892 storm — no major hurricane (Cat 3+) on record within 40 nmi. The safest larger island in our dataset for hurricane-season travel.

Trinidad

3 direct hits all-time, the last in 1933. So far south that a direct hurricane is roughly a once-in-58-years event; its rare activity even skews to June rather than the September peak.

Aruba

5 direct hits since 1851 — about one every 35 years. Its only modern major was Felix (2007, 98 kt). A dependable dry-season-feel pick even in September.

Bonaire

Same profile as Aruba: 5 direct hits, last Felix (2007), no major hurricanes on record. The “ABC islands” (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao) function as a unit for storm exposure.

Southern-edge islands: low, but not zero

St. Vincent

7 direct hits; last Elsa (2021). Historic blows include Janet (1955, 90 kt) and Allen (1980, 115 kt).

Barbados

8 direct hits; last Elsa (2021). It sits at the belt’s southeastern doorstep, which keeps its rate low despite an eastern, exposed position.

Puerto Plata (DR)

9 direct hits; last Isaias (2020). The northern-DR coast takes noticeably fewer direct hits than Punta Cana on the east.

Grenada

10 direct hits, scarred by Ivan (2004, 109 kt) and Beryl (2024, 120 kt) — a reminder that “edge” still means real, if infrequent, risk.

St. Lucia

10 direct hits; last Elsa (2021); Allen (1980, 115 kt) the strongest on record.

Inside the belt: the highest-exposure destinations

Belize City

12 direct hits; the western-Caribbean pattern pushes its peak risk into October. Last: Lisa (2022).

Roatán

14 direct hits; last Richard (2010); Iris (2001, 118 kt) the strongest.

Martinique

15 direct hits, 5 major; last Maria (2017, 128 kt).

Dominica

16 direct hits, 6 major; every recorded direct hit fell in August or September. Maria (2017, 143 kt) devastated the island.

Exuma (Bahamas)

17 direct hits, 7 major; last Isaias (2020).

Jamaica

18 direct hits. Quiet late-20th-century decades were followed by a very active stretch — Beryl (2024) and Melissa (2025) back to back. Note: our reference point is the island center; Montego Bay–specific risk is likely lower than this island-wide number (see methodology).

Punta Cana (DR)

18 direct hits, 6 major; last Fiona (2022). September dominates its record (11 of its hits).

Puerto Rico

18 direct hits, 8 major; Irma and Maria struck within weeks in 2017 (Maria at 115 kt over the island).

Tortola (BVI)

18 direct hits, 7 major; Irma (2017, 153 kt) the worst.

Guadeloupe

18 direct hits, 6 major; last Tammy (2023).

Turks & Caicos

19 direct hits and 10 majors — one of the highest major-hurricane counts in the set. Last: Oscar (2024); Irma (2017, 138 kt).

St. Thomas (USVI)

19 direct hits, 6 major; Irma (2017, 150 kt), Dorian (2019).

Nassau (Bahamas)

22 direct hits and 14 majors — the most majors of any destination here. Andrew (1992, 128 kt), Matthew (2016).

Cancún (MX)

22 direct hits; Gilbert (1988, 140 kt) and Wilma (2005) are the benchmarks; last Helene (2024).

Cozumel (MX)

23 direct hits, and the highest modern rate in the group (1.76/decade since 1975). Wilma (2005), Beryl (2024).

Anguilla

25 direct hits, 13 major; Irma (2017, 155 kt).

Antigua

26 direct hits, 10 major; Irma (2017, 155 kt), Luis (1995).

Grand Cayman

26 direct hits, with meaningful Oct–Nov risk from the late-season western-Caribbean pattern. Ivan (2004, 132 kt).

St. Kitts & Nevis

26 direct hits, 9 major; Irma (2017, 155 kt), Hugo (1989).

St. Maarten

27 direct hits — the most-hit Caribbean destination in our set; 13 majors. Irma (2017, 155 kt) is the defining storm.

When is Caribbean hurricane risk highest? A month-by-month view

The official Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30. But direct hits are not spread evenly across it. Across our 30 destinations, September is the single peak month, with August close behind; June and November direct hits are comparatively rare. One important exception: the western Caribbean — Belize, Grand Cayman, Cozumel, Roatán — carries a distinctly later curve, keeping real risk into October and even November.

Direct hurricane hits by month, 1851–2025, selected destinations. Full monthly counts for all 30 destinations are in our dataset.

The practical takeaway: if your only flexible window is late season, the eastern and southern islands (which quiet down after September) are a safer bet than the western Caribbean, which is just entering its most active weeks in October.

Is Caribbean hurricane risk getting worse?

It depends heavily on the island, and the honest answer is “mixed, and the record itself is uneven.” Comparing each destination’s modern rate (1975–2025, the well-observed satellite era) to its full-record rate, the biggest increases are at Bermuda, Anguilla, Antigua, Cozumel and St. Maarten. Several destinations show lower modern rates — Nassau, Cancún, Jamaica, Dominica — though that partly reflects clusters of hits in earlier decades rather than a trend you can bank on.

One caution we want to be upfront about: records before roughly 1900 undercount storms (there were no satellites and few ships to spot them), which makes all-time rates look artificially low. That is exactly why we compute a separate “since 1975” column — use it for any modern-era comparison. Treat every number here as climatology, not a forecast.

The 2026 season so far

As of NOAA’s August 6, 2026 update, forecasters put the odds of a below-normal Atlantic season at 75% (raised from 55% in May), calling for 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes, with developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress activity. Through mid-August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) had formed, and no hurricanes. That is genuinely quieter than average — but as NOAA and every meteorologist will tell you, a below-normal season still only takes one storm hitting your island on your week. The climatology in this guide is the right lens for choosing where and when; the current NHC outlook is the right lens for this trip. For the full seasonal breakdown, see our 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

Frequently asked questions

What is the safest Caribbean island during hurricane season?

By direct-hit frequency since 1851, Curaçao is the safest larger Caribbean island during hurricane season — no direct hurricane hit since 1892. Aruba, Bonaire and Trinidad round out the four safest, all sitting outside the main hurricane belt along South America’s northern edge.

Which Caribbean islands are outside the hurricane belt?

The “ABC islands” — Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao — plus Trinidad & Tobago sit far enough south that hurricanes rarely reach them. Each has recorded only 3–5 direct hurricane hits in 175 years, versus 20–27 for the most-exposed Leeward Islands.

When is the peak of Caribbean hurricane season?

The official season is June 1 to November 30, but September is the peak month for direct hits across almost every Caribbean island, with August second. NOAA notes the busiest window typically opens in mid-August. The western Caribbean (Belize, Grand Cayman, Cozumel) is the exception, staying active into October and November.

Is it safe to travel to the Caribbean during hurricane season?

Yes, with sensible planning. Even the most-hit islands average only about one direct hurricane every 6–7 years, so the odds of a storm on any specific week are low. Reduce risk further by choosing southern or “outside the belt” islands, favoring the calmer early-season and shoulder weeks, and buying travel insurance with hurricane/trip-interruption coverage.

Does the western Caribbean have a later hurricane season?

Yes. Belize, Grand Cayman, Cozumel and Roatán follow a later curve than the eastern islands, with meaningful direct-hit risk continuing through October and into November. If you’re traveling late in the season, the eastern and southern Caribbean — which quiet down after September — is generally the safer choice.

What does the 2026 forecast mean for my trip?

NOAA’s August 2026 outlook calls for a below-normal season (75% probability), which lowers overall basin activity. It does not change the island-by-island climatology in this guide, and it does not guarantee any single destination will be storm-free. Use the historical risk tiers to pick your island and month, then watch the National Hurricane Center outlook in the two weeks before you travel.

Sources

Storm-track data: NOAA/NHC HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane database (1851–2025). 2026 seasonal outlook: NOAA, “NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season” (Aug 2026). All per-destination hurricane frequencies were computed by CaribbeanMag from the raw HURDAT2 record; methodology above.